For this page, you’ll need to have the Covid Spread Starter File open on your computer. If you haven’t already, select Save a Copy from the "File" menu to make a copy of the file that’s just for you.

1 Find the function called is-MA in the Definitions Area under "Define some helper functions" and read the comments carefully!

a. What is the Domain of is-MA? What is its Range?

b. What do you think is-MA​(​MA1​) will evalute to? . is-MA​(​CT1​)? . is-MA​(​ME1​)?

Try typing each of the is-MA expressions into the Interactions Area on the right and confirm you were correct.

2 Find MA-table in the Definitions Area under "Define some grouped and/or random samples". What is that code doing?

3 Define a new function is-VT and create a new grouped sample called VT-table.
Hint: You can use the code for is-MA and MA-table as a model.

Modeling VT

For this section, in addition to Pyret, you will need to have Slide 5: Exponential Model for VT of Modeling Covid Spread (Desmos) open on your computer.

4 Use lr-plot to obtain the best-possible linear model for the relationship between day and positive in the VT-table, then fill in the blanks below:

The optimized linear model for this dataset predicts an increase / decrease of about slope y-variable per x-variable.
The error in the model is described by an S-value of about Sunits, which is insignificant, moderate, significant, extreme considering that y-variable in this dataset range from lowest y-value to highest y-value.

5 Use Slide 5: Exponential Model for VT of Modeling Covid Spread (Desmos) to come up with the best exponential model you can for the Vermont dataset, and write it below:

6 Add a definition for exponential-VT to the Definitions area of Covid Spread Starter File using the model you just found.

  • Click "Run" to load your definition.

  • Then fit the model using VT-table

According to this exponential model, on June 9, 2020day zero there were about a + k y-units in VT, for a total of about a + k. This number grew exponentially, increasing by a factor of Growth Factor: b or Growth Rate: (b - 1) × 100 % every day. The error in the model is described by an S-value of about Sunits, which is insignificant, moderate, significant, extreme considering that y-units in this dataset range from lowest y-value to highest y-value.

7 Are exponential models a good fit for this data? Why or why not?

These materials were developed partly through support of the National Science Foundation, (awards 1042210, 1535276, 1648684, 1738598, 2031479, and 1501927). CCbadge Bootstrap by the Bootstrap Community is licensed under a Creative Commons 4.0 Unported License. This license does not grant permission to run training or professional development. Offering training or professional development with materials substantially derived from Bootstrap must be approved in writing by a Bootstrap Director. Permissions beyond the scope of this license, such as to run training, may be available by contacting contact@BootstrapWorld.org.